Next Generation Strong Lensing Time Delay Estimation with Gaussian Processes

Aug 21, 2014
9 pages
Published in:
  • Phys.Rev.D 90 (2014) 12, 123501
  • Published: Dec 1, 2014
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Abstract: (APS)

Strong gravitational lensing forms multiple, time delayed images of cosmological sources, with the “focal length” of the lens serving as a cosmological distance probe. Robust estimation of the time delay distance can tightly constrain the Hubble constant as well as the matter density and dark energy. Current and next generation surveys will find hundreds to thousands of lensed systems but accurate time delay estimation from noisy, gappy light curves is potentially a limiting systematic. Using a large sample of blinded light curves from the Strong Lens Time Delay Challenge we develop and demonstrate a Gaussian process cross correlation technique that delivers an average bias within 0.1% depending on the sampling, necessary for subpercent Hubble constant determination. The fits are accurate (80% of them within one day) for delays from 5–100 days and robust against cadence variations shorter than six days. We study the effects of survey characteristics such as cadence, season, and campaign length, and derive requirements for time delay cosmology: in order not to bias the cosmology determination by 0.5σ, the mean time delay fit accuracy must be better than 0.2%.

Note:
  • 8 pages, 6 figures; v2 updated TDC1 reference, corrected typo in Eq. 7
  • 98.80.-k