Searching for additional structure and redshift evolution in the observed binary black hole population with a parametric time-dependent mass distribution - INSPIRE

DataBETA

Searching for additional structure and redshift evolution in the observed binary black hole population with a parametric time-dependent mass distribution

Vasco Gennari
(
- L2IT, Toulouse
)
,
Simone Mastrogiovanni
(
- L2IT, Toulouse and
- INFN, Rome
)
,
Nicola Tamanini
(
- L2IT, Toulouse
)
,
Sylvain Marsat
(
- L2IT, Toulouse
)
,
Grégoire Pierra
(
- IP2I, Lyon
)

Feb 27, 2025

28 pages

e-Print:

2502.20445 [gr-qc]

View in:

reference search0 citations

Citations per year

0 Citations

Abstract: (arXiv)

The population of the observed gravitational wave events encodes unique information on the formation and evolution of stellar-mass black holes, from the underlying astrophysical processes to the large-scale dynamics of the Universe. We use the ICAROGW analysis infrastructure to perform hierarchical Bayesian inference on the gravitational wave signals from the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA third observing run, O3. Searching for additional structure and redshift evolution in the primary mass distribution, we explore the dependence of the mass spectrum reconstruction on different parametrizations and prior choices. For the stationary case, we find strong evidence (Bayes factor

B \simeq 180

) that the results obtained using a power-law model with a peak (Powerlaw-Gaussian)--the model preferred so far in the literature--are sensitive to prior bounds, affecting the resolvability of the

\sim 35 M_{\odot}

peak. This behaviour is reproduced by simulated data, indicating a bimodal structure in the likelihood. Models with three mass features simultaneously capture a sharp

\sim 10M_{\odot}

peak, a

\sim 35 M_{\odot}

overdensity, and support for a

\sim 20 M_{\odot}

overdensity preceded by a dip. Among these, a model with three power-law peaks (Powerlaw-Powerlaw-Powerlaw) is equally favored, in terms of evidence, over the Powerlaw-Gaussian model with wide priors. We find no statistical support for redshift evolution in the current data and provide constraints on the parameters governing this evolution, showing consistency with stationarity. We highlight possible limitations of the hierarchical Bayesian inference framework in reconstructing evolving features outside the detector horizon. Our work lays the foundations for a robust characterization of time-dependent population distributions, with significant implications for black hole astrophysics and gravitational wave cosmology.

References(164)

Figures(14)

[1]

Population Properties of Compact Objects from the Second LIGO-Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog

LIGO Scientific and
Virgo

Collaborations

•

R. Abbott
(
- LIGO Lab., Caltech
)

et al.

- Astrophys.J.Lett. 913 (2021) 1, L7
•
e-Print:
- 2010.14533
•
DOI:
- 10.3847/2041-8213/abe949

[2]

Population of Merging Compact Binaries Inferred Using Gravitational Waves through GWTC-3

Collaborations

•

R. Abbott
(
- LIGO Lab., Caltech
)

et al.

- Phys.Rev.X 13 (2023) 1, 011048
•
e-Print:
- 2111.03634
•
DOI:
- 10.1103/PhysRevX.13.011048

[3]

Reconstructing phenomenological distributions of compact binaries via gravitational wave observations

- Phys.Rev.D 100 (2019) 4, 043012
•
e-Print:
- 1805.06442
•
DOI:
- 10.1103/PhysRevD.100.043012

[4]

Evolutionary roads leading to low effective spins, high black hole masses, and O1/O2 rates for LIGO/Virgo binary black holes

K. Belczynski
(
- Warsaw, Copernicus Astron. Ctr.
)
,
J. Klencki
(
- Nijmegen U., IMAPP
)
,
C.E. Fields
(
- Michigan State U.
)
,
A. Olejak
(
- Warsaw U. Observ. and
- Warsaw, CFT
)
,
E. Berti
(
- Johns Hopkins U.
)

et al.

- Astron.Astrophys. 636 (2020) A104
•
e-Print:
- 1706.07053
•
DOI:
- 10.1051/0004-6361/201936528

[5]

Distinguishing Spin-Aligned and Isotropic Black Hole Populations With Gravitational Waves

Will M. Farr
(
- Birmingham U.
)
,
Simon Stevenson
(
- Birmingham U. and
- Santa Barbara, KITP
)
,
M. Coleman Miller
(
- Maryland U.
)
,
Ilya Mandel
(
- Birmingham U. and
- Santa Barbara, KITP
)
,
Ben Farr
(
- Chicago U., EFI and
- Chicago U., KICP
)

et al.

- Nature 548 (2017) 426
•
e-Print:
- 1706.01385
•
DOI:
- 10.1038/nature23453

[6]

Inferences about supernova physics from gravitational-wave measurements: GW151226 spin misalignment as an indicator of strong black-hole natal kicks

Richard O'Shaughnessy
(
- Rochester Inst. Tech.
)
,
Davide Gerosa
(
- Caltech
)
,
Daniel Wysocki
(
- Rochester Inst. Tech.
)

- Phys.Rev.Lett. 119 (2017) 1, 011101
•
e-Print:
- 1704.03879
•
DOI:
- 10.1103/PhysRevLett.119.011101

[7]

Are LIGO's Black Holes Made From Smaller Black Holes?

Maya Fishbach
(
- Chicago U., Astron. Astrophys. Ctr.
)
,
Daniel E. Holz
(
- Chicago U., EFI and
- Chicago U., KICP
)
,
Ben Farr
(
- Chicago U.
)

- Astrophys.J.Lett. 840 (2017) 2, L24
•
e-Print:
- 1703.06869
•
DOI:
- 10.3847/2041-8213/aa7045

[8]

Black Hole Coagulation: Modeling Hierarchical Mergers in Black Hole Populations

e-Print:
- 1911.04424
•
DOI:
- 10.3847/1538-4357/ab7fac

[9]

Monte Carlo simulations of black hole mergers in AGN discs: Low $\chi_{\rm eff}$ mergers and predictions for LIGO

- Mon.Not.Roy.Astron.Soc. 494 (2020) 1, 1203-1216
•
e-Print:
- 1907.04356
•
DOI:
- 10.1093/mnras/staa740

[10]

Accuracy of inference on the physics of binary evolution from gravitational-wave observations

Jim W. Barrett
(
- Birmingham U.
)
,
Sebastian M. Gaebel
(
- Birmingham U.
)
,
Coenraad J. Neijssel
(
- Birmingham U.
)
,
Alejandro Vigna-Gómez
(
- Birmingham U.
)
,
Simon Stevenson
(
- Birmingham U. and
- Swinburne U., Ctr. Astrophys. Supercomput.
)

et al.

- Mon.Not.Roy.Astron.Soc. 477 (2018) 4, 4685-4695
•
e-Print:
- 1711.06287
•
DOI:
- 10.1093/mnras/sty908

[11]

Using Spin to Understand the Formation of LIGO and Virgo’s Black Holes

Ben Farr
(
- Oregon U. and
- Chicago U., EFI and
- Chicago U., KICP and
- DARK Cosmology Ctr.
)
,
Daniel E. Holz
(
- Chicago U., EFI and
- Chicago U., KICP and
- DARK Cosmology Ctr. and
- Chicago U. and
- Chicago U., Astron. Astrophys. Ctr.
)
,
Will M. Farr
(
- DARK Cosmology Ctr. and
- Birmingham U.
)

- Astrophys.J.Lett. 854 (2018) 1, L9
•
e-Print:
- 1709.07896
•
DOI:
- 10.3847/2041-8213/aaaa64

[12]

Spin orientations of merging black holes formed from the evolution of stellar binaries

Davide Gerosa
(
- Caltech
)
,
Emanuele Berti
(
- Johns Hopkins U. and
- Mississippi U.
)
,
Richard O'Shaughnessy
(
- Rochester Inst. Tech., CCRG
)
,
Krzysztof Belczynski
(
- Warsaw, Copernicus Astron. Ctr.
)
,
Michael Kesden
(
- Texas U., Dallas
)

et al.

- Phys.Rev.D 98 (2018) 8, 084036
•
e-Print:
- 1808.02491
•
DOI:
- 10.1103/PhysRevD.98.084036

[13]

Binary population synthesis with probabilistic remnant mass and kick prescriptions

et al.

- Mon.Not.Roy.Astron.Soc. 500 (2020) 1, 1380-1384
•
e-Print:
- 2007.03890
•
DOI:
- 10.1093/mnras/staa3390

[14]

Gravitational waves as a probe of globular cluster formation and evolution

Isobel M. Romero-Shaw
(
- Monash U. and
- Unlisted, AU
)
,
Kyle Kremer
(
- Caltech, Pasadena (main) and
- Carnegie Inst. Observ.
)
,
Paul D. Lasky
(
- Monash U. and
- Unlisted, AU
)
,
Eric Thrane
(
- Monash U. and
- Unlisted, AU
)
,
Johan Samsing
(
- Bohr Inst.
)

- Mon.Not.Roy.Astron.Soc. 506 (2021) 2, 2362-2372
•
e-Print:
- 2011.14541
•
DOI:
- 10.1093/mnras/stab1815

[15]

Distinguishing compact binary population synthesis models using gravitational-wave observations of coalescing binary black holes

Simon Stevenson
(
- Birmingham U. and
- Cardiff U.
)
,
Frank Ohme
(
- Cardiff U.
)
,
Stephen Fairhurst
(
- Cardiff U.
)

- Astrophys.J. 810 (2015) 1, 58
•
e-Print:
- 1504.07802
•
DOI:
- 10.1088/0004-637X/810/1/58

[16]

Constraining black-hole spins with gravitational wave observations

- Astrophys.J. 868 (2018) 2, 140
•
e-Print:
- 1809.01401
•
DOI:
- 10.3847/1538-4357/aae8df

[17]

Joint constraints on the field-cluster mixing fraction, common envelope efficiency, and globular cluster radii from a population of binary hole mergers via deep learning

- Phys.Rev.D 103 (2021) 8, 083021
•
e-Print:
- 2011.03564
•
DOI:
- 10.1103/PhysRevD.103.083021

[18]

Explaining LIGO’s observations via isolated binary evolution with natal kicks

Daniel Wysocki
(
- Rochester Inst. Tech.
)
,
Davide Gerosa
(
- Caltech
)
,
Richard O'Shaughnessy
(
- Rochester Inst. Tech.
)
,
Krzysztof Belczynski
(
- Warsaw, Copernicus Astron. Ctr.
)
,
Wojciech Gladysz
(
- Warsaw U. Observ.
)

et al.

- Phys.Rev.D 97 (2018) 4, 043014
•
e-Print:
- 1709.01943
•
DOI:
- 10.1103/PhysRevD.97.043014

[19]

Hierarchical mergers of stellar-mass black holes and their gravitational-wave signatures

- Nature Astron. 5 (2021) 8, 749-760
•
e-Print:
- 2105.03439
•
DOI:
- 10.1038/s41550-021-01398-w

[20]

One Channel to Rule Them All? Constraining the Origins of Binary Black Holes Using Multiple Formation Pathways

Michael Zevin
(
- Northwestern U. and
- Unlisted, US and
- Chicago U., EFI and
- Chicago U., KICP
)
,
Simone S. Bavera
(
- Unlisted, US and
- ISDC, Versoix
)
,
Christopher P.L. Berry
(
- Unlisted, US and
- Glasgow U.
)
,
Vicky Kalogera
(
- Northwestern U. and
- Unlisted, US
)
,
Tassos Fragos
(
- ISDC, Versoix
)

et al.

- Astrophys.J. 910 (2021) 2, 152
•
e-Print:
- 2011.10057
•
DOI:
- 10.3847/1538-4357/abe40e

[21]

Constraining Formation Models of Binary Black Holes with Gravitational-Wave Observations

et al.

- Astrophys.J. 846 (2017) 1, 82
•
e-Print:
- 1704.07379
•
DOI:
- 10.3847/1538-4357/aa8408

[22]

Merging stellar-mass binary black holes

Ilya Mandel
(
- Birmingham U. and
- Monash U.
)
,
Alison Farmer
(
- Dept. of Energy, Oakland
)

- Phys.Rept. 955 (2022) 1-24
•
e-Print:
- 1806.05820
•
DOI:
- 10.1016/j.physrep.2022.01.003

[23]

Binary Black Hole Mergers: Formation and Populations

Michela Mapelli

- Front.Astron.Space Sci. 7 (2020) 38
•
e-Print:
- 2105.12455
•
DOI:
- 10.3389/fspas.2020.00038

[24]

Formation Channels of Single and Binary Stellar-Mass Black Holes

Michela Mapelli

[25]

The Evolution of Massive Binary Stars

- Ann.Rev.Astron.Astrophys. 62 (2024) 1, 21-61
•
e-Print:
- 2311.01865
•
DOI:
- 10.1146/annurev-astro-052722-105936

1-25 of 164
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
25 / page